Want to Know What is Happening to the App Store? Just Look at Porn.
Originally posted on Tumblr, 1 January 2014.
A few weeks ago I was watching a rerun of one of Louis Theroux’s BBC Specials. It was an episode in which Louis revisited participants of an earlier series around a decade later, and centered on those active in the Porn Industry. As always, using a disarming measure of (feigned?) naïveté, Louis brought his subjects’ deepest fears to surface, and it was clear that many were struggling.
One of those interviewed was a producer, and the owner of a small company turning out extreme pornography at the time of the original shooting. When Louis revisited, he was producing relatively tame, novelty porn for the masses — nothing more extreme than an Iron Man suit.
What became clear was that the Porn Industry had changed a lot in the decade since the original filming. In short, Porn had become much more socially acceptable, even mainstream. There was no living to be made making outlaw porn anymore; the money, in this maturing market, was with large organizations churning out material for everyday folk.
You would think that this would be welcome in the industry, but many of those interviewed were nostalgic. One performer attributed declining incomes to the rise of so-called ‘Tube sites’, free sites similar to YouTube where anyone with a video camera — and the stamina — can produce and upload pornography.
Why dwell on this on a blog that focuses on App Development? Well, the parallels between the Porn Industry and the App Industry are quite striking. When the App Store was young you could make a good living churning out just about anything. There were no big names, and plenty of opportunities for anyone with half an idea to make a killing.
Over time, with more money entering the market, bigger companies have moved in. It has gradually become more difficult for smaller developers to compete. Added to this, there is the App Store equivalent of Tube sites: the freemium business model. This grew out of a Gold Rush where anyone with $99 could start churning out apps. The apps usually weren’t very good, but their presence made it more difficult for the better products to get noticed, and more difficult to demand payment from customers accustomed to free.
The App Store is bigger than it has ever been, but it has changed…matured. It’s dominated now by large companies and startups with deep pockets, with the means to market their way out of the morass.
It’s unquestionably more difficult now for smaller indie developers, but there are always opportunities, even in a mature market. You have to look for the niches that would not interest a big player, or offer a twist in an established category.
And, as difficult as it is for smaller concerns to get noticed, the success of the Vesper (link no longer available) note taking app shows that small developers can still release popular apps. It does require more attention to how the app will be marketed. As good as the Vesper app is, there can be no doubt a lot of its success is attributable to the notoriety of John Gruber. His role in the publicity machinery of Q Branch, the developers of Vesper, should not be underestimated. Other developers may need to follow suit, looking more laterally at how they generate the publicity needed for a successful indie launch in today’s App Store.